Forecast Intervals Readers Actually Understand

Point forecasts attract attention; intervals carry honesty. Choose interval levels matched to decisions — 90% vs 95% — and explain whether intervals are conditional on a fixed model or reflect parameter uncertainty. Fan charts help when audiences track upside and downside risks. Avoid dual axes that imply spurious correlations; separate panels often communicate better. When models change between quarters, document why. Forecast consumers compare narratives across time; silent model swaps erode trust faster than wide intervals.